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IVF Success Rate Calculator

Estimate IVF success rate based on age, medical history, and other factors to help you understand personal success probability

yrs

Normal weight

AMH drives how many eggs you get, not the per-transfer success rate

eggs

Manually set — changing age or AMH will not overwrite it

Count only transfers that did not result in a live birth

Modelled from CDC/SART annual reports plus published cohort studies and meta-analyses

How does this calculator work?

  1. 1 Enter the female partner’s age (20–45) and BMI
  2. 2 Pick an AMH band — the tool then suggests an expected egg count you can override
  3. 3 Choose the primary diagnosis, previous failed transfers, PGT-A use and egg source
  4. 4 See the per-transfer live-birth range, the retrieval-to-transferable pipeline, and cumulative rates capped by the number of transferable embryos

What Factors Affect IVF Success Rates?

IVF success is a range, not a fixed number. Single-transfer live-birth rates run at roughly 44–47% under 35, 35–39% at 35–37, 24–30% at 38–40, 13–19% at 41–42 and 7–10% over 42. That column is not something SART publishes directly — the SART 2023 snapshot report only reports per-intended-egg-retrieval and per-thaw figures, so this curve is derived from the former and cross-checked against HFEA live birth per embryo transferred. The calculator interpolates linearly along that curve instead of stepping between bands, so there is no cliff between 34 and 35, then adjusts for your profile.

The pipeline shows the real journey from retrieval to transferable embryos: about 80% of eggs mature, 75% of mature eggs fertilise, and the blastocyst rate falls with age from roughly 55% to 18%. Transferable embryos therefore work out at about 15–33% of eggs retrieved — not a flat 30–50%. That is why a high egg count does not automatically mean a high success rate.

Cumulative live birth = 1 − (1 − p)^n, with a decay applied to later transfers because the best embryo is usually transferred first and patients with a good prognosis drop out early. Real cumulative rates therefore sit below the plain binomial figure. More importantly the number of transfers is capped by the transferable embryos expected: with only one embryo, rounds 2 and 3 show another-retrieval-needed rather than a percentage no embryo can support.

BMI and smoking adjust the baseline: BMI 30+ or under 18.5 lowers success by roughly 10–15%, and smoking by about 30% when the Waylen et al. (2009) odds ratio of 0.54 is converted to a relative risk. AMH does not appear in the per-transfer formula at all — it sets the expected egg count, which sets the transferable embryos, which set the cumulative rate. These remain population averages; embryo quality, uterine environment and lab standards are not captured by any online tool.

How Is IVF Success Rate Calculated?

Age baselines are single-transfer live-birth rates and are interpolated linearly across age rather than stepped between bands. A note on the source: the SART 2023 snapshot report publishes no per-transfer row — only per-intended-egg-retrieval and per-thaw denominators — so this curve is derived from its first-embryo-transfer per-retrieval figures divided by the share of cycles that reach a transfer, and cross-checked against HFEA 2022 live birth per embryo transferred. The remaining factors scale that baseline to produce a low-to-high range. AMH is deliberately absent from this formula: it sets the expected egg count, which sets the number of transferable embryos, which sets the cumulative rate. Cumulative rates use 1 − (1 − p)^n with a decay applied to later transfers, and are capped at the transferable embryos expected.

Per-transfer live birth = age baseline (or PGT-A euploid baseline) × BMI × diagnosis × prior-failure × smoking factors

What Factors Influence My IVF Outcome?

  • • The result is an estimate, not a calculation of your personal outcome — the model converts CDC/SART/HFEA population statistics into an expected range for couples with a profile like yours
  • • Age is the most important factor; success declines noticeably after 35
  • • The tool shows a range, not a single number — the width reflects individual variation
  • • Cumulative success is much higher than per-cycle, but is limited by how many transferable embryos you have
This calculator is for reference only and does not replace professional medical advice. Please consult your doctor for personalized guidance.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why show a range instead of one number?
Responses vary widely — even at the same age and diagnosis, embryo quality, uterine factors and lab standards change the outcome. That is what the width of the range represents; it is not a confidence interval.
What is the stage pipeline?
The journey from retrieval to transferable embryos passes through stages: retrieved → mature → fertilised → blastocyst → transferable. About 80% of eggs mature and 75% of mature eggs fertilise; the blastocyst rate falls with age from roughly 55% to 18%, so transferable embryos work out at about 15–33% of eggs retrieved.
Why is cumulative success so much higher than per-cycle?
Cumulative rate = 1 − (1 − p)^n, with a decay applied to later transfers because the best embryo is usually used first. At 35% per transfer, two transfers give about 56% and three about 70%. The number of transfers is capped by the transferable embryos you are expected to have.
Does AMH matter much?
AMH reflects ovarian reserve and sets how many eggs you can expect, which drives the number of transferable embryos and therefore the cumulative rate. It does not determine whether one transfer succeeds, so this tool applies AMH only to egg yield rather than discounting the per-transfer rate twice.
Why is there a smoking factor but not alcohol or betel nut?
Smoking is the most consistent lifestyle signal in the IVF literature (Waylen et al. 2009: odds ratio for live birth per cycle 0.54) and shows a dose relationship, so a coefficient is defensible. Alcohol findings are inconsistent and betel nut lacks quantitative IVF-outcome data, so those — and a smoking male partner — raise a note without changing the percentage.

References

  • [1] CDC annual reporting and SART national registry data provide US baseline IVF live-birth rates stratified by age: <35, 35–37, 38–40, 41–42 and >42 — CDC ART Success Rates
  • [2] Waylen et al. (2009), a meta-analysis of 21 studies, found smokers had an odds ratio for live birth per cycle of 0.54 (95% CI 0.30–0.99), clinical pregnancy 0.56 and miscarriage 2.65 — Waylen et al. - Human Reproduction Update

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